Objectives: To examine the predictive value of intrinsic capacity decline on functional disability among the elderly.

Design: Meta-analysis.

Methods: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, The Cochrane Library, Wanfang Database, China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI), Weipu Database (VIP), and Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM) were searched for relevant studies published from the inception until June 1, 2024. Stata 17.0 software was used to perform the meta-analysis. The methodological quality was evaluated using the Newcastle Ottawa Scale. The overall quality of evidence used GRADE guidelines to assess. A study protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42023475461).

Results: The meta-analysis included 8 cohort studies including 9744 elderly people. Functional disability including ADL disability (n = 6) and IADL disability (n = 7). The results showed that intrinsic capacity decline could predict ADL disability (HR = 1.08, 95 %CI 1.04-1.12; I(2) = 98.2 %, P < 0.001) and IADL disability (HR = 1.11, 95 %CI 1.05-1.17; I(2) = 96.4 %, P < 0.001). The overall risk of bias was low. And the grade of evidence that assessed by GRADE guidelines was rated as moderate.

Conclusions: Intrinsic capacity decline is a predictor of functional disability in the elderly. Therefore, screening intrinsic capacity decline has important clinical implications for early identifying the risk of functional disability, which contributes to providing individualized interventions ahead of potential functional disability for the elderly, thereby preventing functional disability, improving the quality of life and promoting healthy aging.