Background: Vascular mild cognitive impairment (VMCI) is a transitional condition that may evolve into Vascular Dementia(VaD). Hippocampal volume (HV) is suggested as an early marker for VaD, the role of white matter lesions (WMLs) in neurodegeneration remains debated.

Objectives: Evaluate HV and WMLs as predictive markers of VaD in VMCI patients by assessing: (i)baseline differences in HV and WMLs between converters to VaD and non-converters, (ii) predictive power of HV and WMLs for VaD, (iii) associations between HV, WMLs, and cognitive decline, (iv)the role of WMLs on HV.

Methods: This longitudinal multicenter study included 110 VMCI subjects (mean age:74.33 ± 6.63 years, 60males/50females) from the VMCI-Tuscany Study database. Subjects underwent brain MRI and cognitive testing, with 2-year follow-up data on VaD progression. HV and WMLs were semi-automatically segmented and measured. ANCOVA assessed group differences, while linear and logistic regression models evaluated predictive power.

Results: After 2 years, 32/110 VMCI patients progressed to VaD. Converting patients had lower HV(p = 0.015) and higher lesion volumes in the posterior thalamic radiation (p = 0.046), splenium of the corpus callosum (p = 0.016), cingulate gyrus (p = 0.041), and cingulum hippocampus(p = 0.038). HV alone did not fully explain progression (p = 0.059), but combined with WMLs volume, the model was significant (p = 0.035). The best prediction model (p = 0.001) included total HV (p = 0.004) and total WMLs volume of the posterior thalamic radiation (p = 0.005) and cingulate gyrus (p = 0.005), achieving 80% precision, 81% specificity, and 74% sensitivity. Lower HV were linked to poorer performance on the Rey Auditory-Verbal Learning Test delayed recall (RAVLT) and Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE).

Conclusions: HV and WMLs are significant predictors of progression from VMCI to VaD. Lower HV correlate with worse cognitive performance on RAVLT and MMSE tests.